一个新的指数由加拿大抵押与住房公司发布，显示加拿大房地产危机在过去几年有所缓解，但仍然处于历史高位，甚至蔓延到温哥华和多伦多以外的城市。

这包括渥太华，自 2019 年以来，房主的住房可负担性大幅下降。

根据该指数， 该城市经历了两次住房不可负担性浪潮。第一波浪潮发生在 1999 年至 2011 年，当时由于工资停滞和通货膨胀，渥太华的经济活动减少。

第二波浪潮始于 2020 年，持续到 2022 年。高利率、供应链中断以及住房建设成本增加，导致渥太华的住房可负担性大幅下降。

“自那以后，情况有所好转。该指数自 2022 年至 2025 年持续改善，这是我们目前掌握的最后一个数据点，”加拿大抵押与住房公司首席经济学家 Mathieu Laberge 在接受《渥太华公民》采访时表示。

“Of course, there’s still a lot of way to go to go back to pre-COVID levels, but it’s on the right path … We forecast some price appreciation in the housing market (over the next few years), but none of the same levels we’ve seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. That gives us some hope because that means incomes will be able to catch up over time with housing prices, which is a driver for affordability.”

The CMHC’s housing affordability index was published almost a week after the National Housing Bank released its newest Housing Affordability Monitor report, which said Ottawa’s housing market was becoming more and more expensive.

Data from the report suggested that the average price tag for a non-condo residential unit was around $764,858, and the annual household income needed to afford a home in that market was around $173,814 a year. It will take an individual or a family around 60 months to save the amount required for a down payment, the report added.

For condos, the average price tag was around $403,382, and the annual household income needed to afford one of those units was around $93,370 a year. It would take an individual or a family around 24 months to save the amount required for a down payment.

But Laberge said it was more important to look at the diversity of available units in Ottawa’s housing market.

“It’s important that there are entry-level, mid-market and higher-end units available. What we’re seeing right now is the mid to higher end of the market is pretty well supplied right now,” he noted.

“The affordable part of the market still needs more supply. It’s still a very tight market.”

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Это не только начинающие домовладельцы испытывают трудности.

Индекс доступности жилья CMHC также показывает волатильный рынок аренды в Оттаве, с ценами, которые растут и падают примерно каждый год.

Хотя рынок аренды пережил снижение доступности с 2015 по 2020 год, он стабилизировался, сказал Лаберж.

Средние цены аренды в Оттаве исторически соответствовали другим крупным городам по всей стране, добавил он.

«Я думаю, это хорошие новости для Оттывы. Это означает, что рынок аренды все еще относительно доступен или достижим», — сказал экономист.

Лаберж отметил, однако, что арендаторы обычно имеют меньше свободных расходов для управления более широкими инфляционными давлениями. Это означает, что арендаторам труднее перераспределять свои расходы или брать кредиты в краткосрочной перспективе для покрытия возросших затрат.

В результате их бюджеты на жилье намного уже, что снижает их способность оплачивать арендные квартиры.

«Люди, которые могут позволить себе аренду средней или высокой категории или арендованную квартиру, найдут варианты. Но на более доступном или достижимом конце рынка — квартиры для таких людей, как пожарные, учителя, медсестры и т.д. — рынок все еще очень напряженный. Это объясняет много волатильности», — сказал Лаберж.

Laberge said that there was hope on the horizon for renters. Vacancy rates are increasing, which means that there are a lot more options for renters.

The pace of rent growth is also slowing down, he said. While rental prices are still increasing, it is happening at a much slower pace, allowing incomes to catch up.

Programs like the federal government’s Build Canada Homes initiative and the City of Ottawa’s Affordable Housing Community Improvement Plan will also incentivize the development of affordable units in the city, which will help with affordability, the economist noted.

“I’m pretty optimistic for the rental market going forward. It’ll happen in a couple of years, but we will see some improvement over time,” Laberge said.

“There’s been a lot of action from all levels of government — provincial, federal and municipal — to actually make sure that the rental market is well supplied … There has been interventions by governments to make that happen.”

Laberge said that he felt empathetic towards people who were struggling to find affordable housing, especially when it felt like prices weren’t coming down quickly enough.

“I totally empathize with people who are finding it tough. I know it may be hard, but the data is showing that things are slowly improving,” he said.

“Hang tight. It’s coming, it’s there. There’s been a lot of interventions to actually accelerate that, and what we’re seeing is it’s working.”

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